Going through Brexit

Brexit could well become the major political turnaround to shake the History of our generation. It's well worth a blog, especially when you live in a brexit pocket.

As things are going so fast, it will be fun to see if predictions from one day to the next get realized. My first impression is that Brexit is now unstoppable (the less catastrophic scenario being the most likely).

0: -92

So, no Brexit. I was writing, 64 days ago, "Brexit will certainly happen on 31 October (2019). If it does not, even bigger things will happen." Nothing but the same.

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-9: Limbo

Boris Johnson won his first vote in Parliament, on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, but lost on its timetabling.

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-10: no-deal, no signature, no prospects

Parliament did not exactly revoke the deal, in a more subtle move, they refused to vote, which is tantamount to the same although the option of a soft-Brexit thus remains open... therefore, uncertainty remains basically maximum, only 10 days to what promises to be the Halloween of the Millenium.

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-12: Deal or No-Deal?

Boris Johnson got a deal with the EU, which is a great achievement for him, as it was far from clear the EU would be interested in revealing how resolutely opposed to the no-deal Brexit it is (unlike Johnson was seems fully prepared for all the options). Now the question is whether the UK parliament will back it up. It is being decided as I write.

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-51: Suspended parliament

The parliament is now prorogued. The breath of parliamentary democracy is being held off, the mother of parliaments is hibernating till 14 October (2019), before the Halloween rush when Brexit is due to happen. Its charismatic speaker, Bercow, resigned, and the vote for early elections has been rejected so it seems likely that Boris Johnson will be forced to ask for another report of the exit date. Unless he finds an unexpected or compelling move, he is, indeed, to lose the battle, although he still stands stronger to win the war.

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-58: Distribution of the forces

After losing his first election in Parliament, as could be expected after the bold move of shutting it down, Boris Jonhson is hoping to get back the upper hand by turning to general elections (following the bill that the house will set up to block no-deal-Brexit). The battle between a bold and vindicative resurgence of Charles I and a Parliament which also kept its pride and independence, is afoot. What is the distribution of the forces? Or, in other terms, who will win Brexit in the long term?

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-64: Shutting down parliament

Brexit will certainly happen on 31 October (2019) (64 days from now). If it does not, even bigger things will happen. While I decided that I would better remain publicly silent on the whole issue (being a guest in this country, and a scientist who should better mind other things, and somehow of a public figure in a UK University), since the event is getting to proportions that may well change the course of History, of Europe and of our own lives among other things, it would also be an intellectual flaw not to give it very much scrutiny.

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