-9: Limbo

⇠ Back to Blog:Brexit

Boris Johnson won his first vote in Parliament, on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, but lost on its timetabling.

In my view, remember, he doesn't want it to pass, truely. The EU says, at this time of the day, they are considering favourably the extension. I don't think there's much sense for Jonhson in accepting it and thus I still suspect he's cunningly preparing for a big forcing move, by the date he promised (in 9 days). Johnson wants a short extension, the EU & Parliament want a long one. This disagreement might be the open window for him to escape this virtuous vicious circle. People, such as Benn from the Benn act, say they are at loss at Jonhson's strategy now and why he suspended ("put in limbo") the Brexit bill. But it's quite clear why, he doesn't want it to pass. Of course he's not interested in facilitating the timetable to make it progress. He has to manoeuver in these 9 days to keep pretending he's making all the possible efforts to make it happen, while at the same time making sure it does not, neither now (in this week) or by the end of January. I'm not sure elections are a safe bet for him, because I don't see how he will manage to evade Farage's hard-liners, who rightly see his deal as a bad deal (it is a bad deal for UK, which will bring pressure not only from Scotland but also from Ireland), so he'll be in a weak position and either he will have to ally with them or be completely, utterly, pathetically defeated. And if Jonhson has been seen as an outrage to democracy, imagine with Farage. So now the next step is to find the proposed extension (as the EU will apparently not refuse it) inacceptable for some reason. I guess the duration will be the grieving point. Although a really forcing move would be for Jonhson to persuade someone, anybody, Spain, Lithuania, even France maybe, to block the extension from within the EU, against Tusk.