1001 days into the 3rd World War
Today, the last red line drawn by Russia on the scorched Earth of battlefields has been crossed: long-range missiles have been launched to strike deep into its territory, closer to the head. The nuclear escalation now seems unavoidable.
It's been 1001 days that have all passed as being nights for humanity, having tossed its enlightenment on the side to flirt with darkness instead. And not finding the way out, being unable to wake up from this nightmare.
Reaction is inevitable.
If Russia does not react—it didn't immediately—it only invites for more and bigger onslaughts. It will have confessed that it does not, can not or want not enforce its solemn limits. It is as good as having surrendered already.
Its reaction is therefore compulsory. I am surprised, and worried, it was not automatic. They must really believe they will trigger a bullet that will shatter the Earth as if the gun was directly directed at their own skull, that the response will be one with no coming back. Their failure to reply is terrifying, because they seem to be frozen by fear of the terrible strike they have to return.
I would hope they would retaliate with conventional missiles, maybe even bomb capital cities of European countries, to capture everybody's attention and underline their red line, that they are serious about not losing the war.
We are at such a stage of no-return that this dreadful scenario, still the worst-case only months ago, now looks like the best possible escape, the amount of irreparable destruction that would still remain contained, somehow, and allow most of us to survive the escalation.
A wake-up blow is needed that will re-instore a bit of restraint and composure from the NATO side, which gets increasingly comforted in its illusion that there is no limit and that all is bluff and empty threats.
Maybe the shock of seeing London and Paris under missile attacks would bring people back to their senses, and make them realize that they've been putting all their marbles at stake.
The risk is however greater that this would infuriate the masses to the point of their embracing humanity's self-destruction, by fueling war with its best propellant: hate and rage.
Not responding right away suggests that Russia is opting for the other option, the nuclear deterrent.
I don't believe a single second that they consider opting out, concede defeat and thus recognize NATO's authority over the region and, by proxy, over Russia' sovereignty. For a starter, it would be flooded with requests for compensations. Crimea would have to be returned. The country as a whole would quickly be dismantled. This is suicide for them.
The most natural would seem to be an intensification of their war effort in Ukraine or "conventional" retaliations against Western forces. I would guess they know that conventional warfare against NATO is lost, that it is not sustainable, that they would eventually, and quickly at that, lose on the battlefield, on such terms.
I believe they are looking for the sweet spot of making a nuclear, so-called tactical, strike, that will cool down everybody's ardour and bring back a notion of limits, that red lines are not bluff but eventually concrete walls of blood, maybe bring forced negotiations as an alternative to mutual destruction.
But playing with nuclear fire is no ordinary game, and the risk of total reciprocal destruction is gigantic. They have been cornered into a very narrow window of action, one which is endangering all of us, humanity as a whole.
I do not believe either, but can't exclude entirely, that they will opt for a pre-emptive, massive nuclear attack, to cripple their opponent at the root and get an incremental advantage in the post-war apocalypse. Putin once said that if he learned one thing from the streets of Saint-Petersburg, is that if the fight is unavoidable, one must strike first.
I do no believe they consider that quite yet, but would not exclude it altogether..
I think they are thinking which is the least worst reply they can make, having to cope with the fact that all of them are catastrophic.
Conventional strike is playing NATO's game, where it has the upper hand. Nuclear strike is a very risky, never fooled-with before approach, that can backfire and escalate exponentially.
When this happens, we'll have a big display of everybody's consternation, of people saying this is another mental move from Putin which fell out from nowhere, that was inconceivable and came with no warning.
This is clear. What is less clear is if, at this point, people will realize there is only so far one can confront a nuclear power, or if they will persist in the foolish illusion that Russia can be intimated to bow down, if humiliated enough.
The longer they wait, the more dreadful their reply, the most terrible the outcome.